Dashboard
Bittensor regime monitor with the HYPE MA10/30/50 classifier. TAO is the strongest token in the 4-token scout: 3 PASS signals, monotonically improving confluence (1 sig 76% win → 3 sig 100% win), robust across 90/180/270-day windows. Signals are gated to BULL+RECOVERY regimes per refinement R2.
TAO is often framed as the AI-narrative crypto, so we tested whether NVDA price action acts as a TAO confirmation signal. The findings (full report: research/tao-ai-fusion.md):
Conclusion: the AI-narrative thesis is marketing, not alpha. TAO trades like a crypto asset (BTC correlation above shows the real coupling). NVDA fusion would have added noise, so we're NOT putting it on this chart.
| Date (UTC) | Signal | Regime | Entry | Fwd 7d | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May 2026 | ▲ COIL BUY | RECOVERY | $315.08 | -9.54% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 06 May 2026 | ▲ BUY★ | RECOVERY | $292.30 | +5.79% | 🟢 WIN |
| 06 May 2026 | ▲ COIL BUY★ | RECOVERY | $292.30 | +5.79% | 🟢 WIN |
| 02 May 2026 | ▲ TREND BUY | BEAR | $270.53 | +16.47% | 🟢 WIN |
| 13 Mar 2026 | ▲ BUY★ | RECOVERY | $216.46 | +29.76% | 🟢 WIN |
| 13 Mar 2026 | ▲ COIL BUY★ | RECOVERY | $216.46 | +29.76% | 🟢 WIN |
| 10 Mar 2026 | ▲ BUY★ | RECOVERY | $193.60 | +44.98% | 🟢 WIN |
| 10 Mar 2026 | ▲ COIL BUY★ | RECOVERY | $193.60 | +44.98% | 🟢 WIN |
| 05 Feb 2026 | ▼ SELL | TOPPING | $188.31 | -22.66% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 30 Jan 2026 | ▼ SELL | TOPPING | $220.58 | -27.07% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 04 Jan 2026 | ▲ TREND BUY | BEAR | $254.48 | +9.75% | 🟢 WIN |
| 17 Dec 2025 | ▼ SELL | BEAR | $261.39 | -18.06% | 🔴 LOSS |
Classifier: MA10/MA30/MA50 applied to daily close prices (same as the HYPE index page). BULL = all three rising in order; BEAR = reverse; RECOVERY = short-term up but medium still down; TOPPING = the reverse split.
Signal verify bar: mean forward 7d return ≥ 3%, win rate ≥ 55%, n ≥ 5 trigger days in the 180-day backtest window. Each PASS signal listed above cleared this bar.
Regime gate: Per refinement R2 (research/refinement.md), signals only register when the classifier is in BULL or RECOVERY (BULL-only for ZEC T5). This is the "trade only with the trend" filter — historically improves win rate without losing meaningful trigger count.
Source data: CoinGecko free-tier /coins/{id}/market_chart, daily candles, 240-day fetch (so MA50 has warmup before the 180-day backtest window). Server-cached for 30 minutes.
research/tao-signals.md, research/NOTES.md, research/refinement.md