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Zcash regime monitor with the HYPE MA10/30/50 classifier. ZEC had 3 PASS signals; refinement showed the BULL-regime gate dramatically lifts T5 from 71% to 100% win rate. Page applies the gate live and surfaces every trigger with forward return + regime context.
| Date (UTC) | Signal | Regime | Entry | Fwd 7d | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $656.65 | — | too recent |
| 15 May 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $560.83 | +17.08% | 🟢 WIN |
| 13 May 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $570.23 | +0.78% | 🟢 WIN |
| 12 May 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $555.23 | +0.88% | 🟢 WIN |
| 11 May 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $592.93 | -10.20% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 10 May 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $594.86 | -14.05% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 09 May 2026 | T5Vol-squeeze (realized) + 20d high | BULL | $612.83 | -15.94% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 08 May 2026 | T5Vol-squeeze (realized) + 20d high | BULL | $571.59 | -1.88% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 07 May 2026 | T5Vol-squeeze (realized) + 20d high | BULL | $555.46 | -5.67% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 07 May 2026 | T6Volume spike (2×) + 20d high | BULL | $555.46 | -5.67% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 06 May 2026 | T5Vol-squeeze (realized) + 20d high | BULL | $514.80 | +10.77% | 🟢 WIN |
| 06 May 2026 | T6Volume spike (2×) + 20d high | BULL | $514.80 | +10.77% | 🟢 WIN |
| 05 May 2026 | T5Vol-squeeze (realized) + 20d high | BULL | $424.61 | +30.76% | 🟢 WIN |
| 05 May 2026 | T6Volume spike (2×) + 20d high | BULL | $424.61 | +30.76% | 🟢 WIN |
| 04 May 2026 | T5Vol-squeeze (realized) + 20d high | BULL | $412.21 | +43.84% | 🟢 WIN |
| 03 May 2026 | T5Vol-squeeze (realized) + 20d high | BULL | $387.49 | +53.52% | 🟢 WIN |
| 02 May 2026 | T5Vol-squeeze (realized) + 20d high | BULL | $384.43 | +59.42% | 🟢 WIN |
| 16 Apr 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $345.46 | -8.09% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 15 Apr 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $353.86 | -10.47% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 14 Apr 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $366.90 | -15.02% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 13 Apr 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $361.07 | -16.42% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 12 Apr 2026 | S-RSIRSI>65 overbought + rejection | BULL | $370.71 | -12.35% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 10 Apr 2026 | T6Volume spike (2×) + 20d high | BULL | $369.06 | -7.96% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 08 Apr 2026 | T6Volume spike (2×) + 20d high | RECOVERY | $320.83 | +10.30% | 🟢 WIN |
| 08 Mar 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | BEAR | $197.15 | +8.01% | 🟢 WIN |
| 07 Mar 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | BEAR | $210.42 | -1.16% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 06 Feb 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | BEAR | $205.42 | +13.22% | 🟢 WIN |
| 05 Feb 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | BEAR | $252.32 | -4.86% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 04 Feb 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | BEAR | $270.24 | -13.48% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 03 Feb 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | BEAR | $295.29 | -18.49% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 01 Feb 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | BEAR | $300.99 | -19.96% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 26 Jan 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | TOPPING | $329.62 | -7.49% | 🔴 LOSS |
| 21 Jan 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | TOPPING | $349.33 | +14.30% | 🟢 WIN |
| 20 Jan 2026 | S-VOLLOWVol-squeeze + 20d LOW break | TOPPING | $369.20 | -0.37% | 🔴 LOSS |
Classifier: MA10/MA30/MA50 applied to daily close prices (same as the HYPE index page). BULL = all three rising in order; BEAR = reverse; RECOVERY = short-term up but medium still down; TOPPING = the reverse split.
Signal verify bar: mean forward 7d return ≥ 3%, win rate ≥ 55%, n ≥ 5 trigger days in the 180-day backtest window. Each PASS signal listed above cleared this bar.
Regime gate: Per refinement R2 (research/refinement.md), signals only register when the classifier is in BULL or RECOVERY (BULL-only for ZEC T5). This is the "trade only with the trend" filter — historically improves win rate without losing meaningful trigger count.
Source data: CoinGecko free-tier /coins/{id}/market_chart, daily candles, 240-day fetch (so MA50 has warmup before the 180-day backtest window). Server-cached for 30 minutes.
research/zec-signals.md, research/NOTES.md, research/refinement.md